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On 2022 September 18, an alert by the IceCube Collaboration indicated that a ∼170 TeV neutrino arrived in directional coincidence with the blazar TXS 0506+056. This event adds to two previous pieces of evidence that TXS 0506+056 is a neutrino emitter, i.e., a neutrino alert from its direction on 2017 September 22, and a 3σsignature of a dozen neutrinos in 2014/2015. De Bruijn el al. showed that two previous neutrino emission episodes from this blazar could be due to a supermassive binary black hole (SMBBH) central engine where jet precession close to the final coalescence of the binary results in periodic emission. This model predicted a new emission episode consistent with the 2022 September 18 neutrino observation by IceCube. Here, we show that the neutrino cadence of TXS 0506+056 is consistent with an SMBBH origin. We find that the emission episodes are consistent with an SMBBH with mass ratiosq≲ 0.3 for a total black hole mass ofM_tot≳ 3 · 10⁸M_⊙. For the first time, we calculate the characteristic strain of the gravitational wave emission of the binary, and show that the merger could be detectable by LISA for black hole masses <5 · 10⁸M_⊙if the mass ratios are in the range 0.1 ≲q≲ 0.3. We predict that there can be a neutrino flare existing in the still-to-be-analyzed IceCube data peaking some time between 2019 August and 2021 January if a precessing jet is responsible for all three detected emission episodes. The next flare is expected to peak in the period 2023 January to 2026 August. Further observation will make it possible to constrain the mass ratio as a function of the total mass of the black hole more precisely and would open the window toward the preparation of the detection of SMBBH mergers.

 

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory at the South Pole has measured the diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux up to ~PeV energies and is starting to identify first point source candidates. The next generation facility, IceCube-Gen2, aims at extending the accessible energy range to EeV in order to measure the continuation of the astrophysical spectrum, to identify neutrino sources, and to search for a cosmogenic neutrino flux. As part of IceCube-Gen2, a radio array is foreseen that is sensitive to detect Askaryan emission of neutrinos beyond ~30 PeV. Surface and deep antenna stations have different benefits in terms of effective area, resolution, and the capability to reject backgrounds from cosmic-ray air showers and may be combined to reach the best sensitivity. The optimal detector configuration is still to be identified. This contribution presents the full-array simulation efforts for a combination of deep and surface antennas, and compares different design options with respect to their sensitivity to fulfill the science goals of IceCube-Gen2. 

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory opened the window on high-energy neutrino astronomy by confirming the existence of PeV astrophysical neutrinos and identifying the first compelling astrophysical neutrino source in the blazar TXS0506+056. Planning is underway to build an enlarged detector, IceCube-Gen2, which will extend measurements to higher energies, increase the rate of observed cosmic neutrinos and provide improved prospects for detecting fainter sources. IceCube-Gen2 is planned to have an extended in-ice optical array, a radio array at shallower depths for detecting ultra-high-energy (>100 PeV) neutrinos, and a surface component studying cosmic rays. In this contribution, we will discuss the simulation of the in-ice optical component of the baseline design of the IceCube-Gen2 detector, which foresees the deployment of an additional ~120 new detection strings to the existing 86 in IceCube over ~7 Antarctic summer seasons. Motivated by the phased construction plan for IceCube-Gen2, we discuss how the reconstruction capabilities and sensitivities of the instrument are expected to progress throughout its deployment.